The table below is compiled from the results of various DBM competitions held between August 97 (i.e. since the results presented in Results 96-97) and September 98 (which was when I collated the results for Slingshot). My main source of information is the World Wide Web (particularly the British HGMS web page). Most of the competitions were staged in the UK, but a few were held in Portugal, Australia and USA. The competitions involved a total of 813 players (or teams in the case of doubles) with known armies. Just under half of the results (354 or 44%) were from limited period competitions (i.e. those where a restricted set of lists is used). The results from the (UK) National Championships in 98 (which split the 15mm DBM competition into pre and post 494 AD halves) are treated as using an unlimited set of lists.
The probability of success figure represents how far up the rankings the army came in the competition results. In other words, the army coming first in a competition gets 100%, the army that came last gets 0% and the rest are spread evenly between.
| Frequency of use | Probability of success | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Army | Overall |
limited period competitions |
unlimited competitions |
Overall |
limited period competitions |
unlimited competitions |
| Later Imperial Roman | 43 |
15 |
28 |
52% |
51% |
53% |
| Medieval Portugese | 38 |
14 |
24 |
70% |
64% |
74% |
| Neo Assyrian Later Sargonid | 31 |
15 |
16 |
50% |
38% |
62% |
| Later Carthaginian | 25 |
16 |
9 |
47% |
40% |
59% |
| Early Samurai | 20 |
6 |
14 |
57% |
55% |
58% |
| Ottoman Turk | 19 |
9 |
10 |
67% |
69% |
66% |
| Alexandrian Imperial | 17 |
9 |
8 |
45% |
53% |
37% |
| New Kingdom Egyptian | 17 |
5 |
12 |
36% |
35% |
37% |
| Yuan Chinese | 15 |
5 |
10 |
50% |
42% |
53% |
| Later Hebrew | 14 |
12 |
2 |
65% |
70% |
38% |
| Patrician Roman | 14 |
5 |
9 |
58% |
73% |
49% |
| Republican Indian | 14 |
4 |
10 |
69% |
76% |
67% |
| Wars of the Roses | 14 |
3 |
11 |
42% |
35% |
44% |
| Mitanni | 12 |
6 |
6 |
68% |
65% |
71% |
| Seleucid | 12 |
6 |
6 |
56% |
54% |
57% |
| Classical Indian | 12 |
5 |
7 |
47% |
60% |
37% |
| Sassanid Persian | 12 |
5 |
7 |
41% |
42% |
40% |
| Later Hungarian | 12 |
4 |
8 |
37% |
41% |
36% |
| Timurid | 11 |
3 |
8 |
36% |
26% |
40% |
| Middle Assyrian | 10 |
5 |
5 |
84% |
80% |
88% |
| Han Chinese | 10 |
1 |
9 |
61% |
100% |
56% |
| Hittite Empire | 9 |
9 |
0 |
47% |
47% |
|
| Macedonian Early Successor | 9 |
7 |
2 |
50% |
44% |
70% |
| Early Byzantine | 9 |
5 |
4 |
36% |
29% |
45% |
| Dailami | 9 |
2 |
7 |
67% |
63% |
68% |
| Attalid Pergamene | 8 |
7 |
1 |
58% |
64% |
19% |
| Neo Babylonian | 8 |
7 |
1 |
47% |
44% |
68% |
| Early Carthaginian | 8 |
7 |
1 |
41% |
33% |
92% |
| Rus | 8 |
4 |
4 |
60% |
65% |
55% |
| Chinese Northern & Southern Dynasties | 8 |
3 |
5 |
66% |
69% |
64% |
| French Ordonnance | 8 |
2 |
6 |
69% |
72% |
68% |
| Abbasid Arab | 8 |
1 |
7 |
68% |
14% |
76% |
| Western Chou Chinese | 7 |
6 |
1 |
34% |
39% |
2% |
| Alexandrian Macedonian | 7 |
4 |
3 |
38% |
40% |
36% |
| Romanian Frank | 7 |
3 |
4 |
46% |
41% |
49% |
| Feudal Spanish | 7 |
2 |
5 |
48% |
25% |
57% |
| Graeco-Bactrian | 6 |
5 |
1 |
34% |
36% |
24% |
| Palmyran | 6 |
4 |
2 |
55% |
79% |
9% |
| Bithynian | 5 |
5 |
0 |
43% |
43% |
|
| Lysimachid | 5 |
4 |
1 |
73% |
74% |
66% |
| Ancient Spanish | 5 |
4 |
1 |
50% |
63% |
0% |
| Navarrese | 5 |
3 |
2 |
56% |
52% |
61% |
| Later Muslim Indian | 5 |
3 |
2 |
39% |
44% |
32% |
| Hsuing Nu | 5 |
2 |
3 |
60% |
57% |
62% |
| Medieval French | 5 |
2 |
3 |
50% |
14% |
75% |
| Chinese Warring States | 5 |
1 |
4 |
69% |
79% |
66% |
| Serbian Empire | 5 |
1 |
4 |
61% |
88% |
54% |
| Marian Roman | 5 |
1 |
4 |
44% |
84% |
34% |
| Polybian Roman | 5 |
1 |
4 |
29% |
40% |
26% |
| Early Achaemenid Persian | 5 |
0 |
5 |
56% |
56% |
|
| Ghaznavid | 4 |
3 |
1 |
61% |
49% |
95% |
| Later Achaemenid Persian | 4 |
3 |
1 |
57% |
62% |
43% |
| Christian Nubian | 4 |
3 |
1 |
46% |
37% |
74% |
| Italian Condotta | 4 |
3 |
1 |
30% |
21% |
57% |
| Burmese | 4 |
2 |
2 |
66% |
67% |
65% |
| Burgundian Ordonnance | 4 |
2 |
2 |
61% |
65% |
57% |
| Mongol Conquest | 4 |
2 |
2 |
58% |
60% |
57% |
| Khurasanian | 4 |
2 |
2 |
57% |
60% |
53% |
| Graeco-Indian | 4 |
2 |
2 |
53% |
70% |
37% |
| Swiss (late) | 4 |
2 |
2 |
43% |
66% |
20% |
| Minoan & Early Mycenean | 4 |
2 |
2 |
40% |
46% |
33% |
| Teutonic Order | 4 |
2 |
2 |
17% |
18% |
16% |
| Fanatic Berber | 4 |
1 |
3 |
64% |
73% |
62% |
| Alan | 4 |
1 |
3 |
46% |
57% |
43% |
| Gepid | 4 |
1 |
3 |
24% |
18% |
25% |
| Tibetan | 4 |
1 |
3 |
17% |
29% |
13% |
| Early Imperial Roman | 4 |
0 |
4 |
54% |
54% |
|
| Feudal English | 4 |
0 |
4 |
28% |
28% |
|
| Later Crusader | 4 |
0 |
4 |
25% |
25% |
|
| Neo-Babylonian | 3 |
3 |
0 |
96% |
96% |
|
| Parthian | 3 |
3 |
0 |
61% |
61% |
|
| Early Bedouin | 3 |
3 |
0 |
49% |
49% |
|
| Gallic | 3 |
3 |
0 |
27% |
27% |
|
| Camillan Roman | 3 |
2 |
1 |
64% |
55% |
80% |
| Dacian | 3 |
2 |
1 |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Central Asian City States | 3 |
2 |
1 |
39% |
48% |
20% |
| Later Hoplite Greek | 3 |
2 |
1 |
37% |
45% |
21% |
| Nikephorian Byzantine | 3 |
2 |
1 |
14% |
14% |
14% |
| Medieval German | 3 |
1 |
2 |
65% |
100% |
47% |
| Ptolemaic | 3 |
1 |
2 |
55% |
34% |
65% |
| Early T'ang Chinese | 3 |
1 |
2 |
52% |
75% |
41% |
| Neo Assyrian Empire | 3 |
1 |
2 |
27% |
0% |
41% |
| Ancient British | 3 |
1 |
2 |
20% |
54% |
3% |
| Ts'in Chinese | 3 |
0 |
3 |
80% |
80% |
|
| Lithuanian | 3 |
0 |
3 |
74% |
74% |
|
| Ilkhanid | 3 |
0 |
3 |
71% |
71% |
|
| Cham | 3 |
0 |
3 |
63% |
63% |
|
| Komnenan Byzantine | 3 |
0 |
3 |
62% |
62% |
|
| Spartan | 3 |
0 |
3 |
48% |
48% |
|
| Pictish | 3 |
0 |
3 |
46% |
46% |
|
| Free Company | 3 |
0 |
3 |
40% |
40% |
|
| Early Russian | 3 |
0 |
3 |
38% |
38% |
|
| 100 Years War English | 3 |
0 |
3 |
31% |
31% |
|
| Carolingian | 3 |
0 |
3 |
29% |
29% |
|
| Sumerian Successor | 2 |
2 |
0 |
74% |
74% |
|
| Lakhmids | 2 |
2 |
0 |
63% |
63% |
|
| Mittani | 2 |
2 |
0 |
45% |
45% |
|
| Early Hu | 2 |
2 |
0 |
43% |
43% |
|
| Early Frankish, ... | 2 |
1 |
1 |
80% |
61% |
100% |
| Early Macedonian | 2 |
1 |
1 |
73% |
74% |
72% |
| Khwarizmian | 2 |
1 |
1 |
69% |
38% |
100% |
| Khmer | 2 |
1 |
1 |
57% |
43% |
71% |
| Anglo Danish | 2 |
1 |
1 |
24% |
0% |
48% |
| Middle Imperial Roman | 2 |
1 |
1 |
22% |
4% |
41% |
| African Vandal | 2 |
1 |
1 |
20% |
33% |
7% |
| Neo Hittite | 2 |
1 |
1 |
10% |
6% |
14% |
| Three Kingdoms Chinese | 2 |
0 |
2 |
80% |
80% |
|
| Trapezuntine Byzantine | 2 |
0 |
2 |
40% |
40% |
|
| Tuareg | 2 |
0 |
2 |
33% |
33% |
|
| Syracusan | 2 |
0 |
2 |
33% |
33% |
|
| Seljuk Turk | 2 |
0 |
2 |
29% |
29% |
|
| Early German | 2 |
0 |
2 |
28% |
28% |
|
| Ming Chinese | 2 |
0 |
2 |
26% |
26% |
|
| Welsh | 2 |
0 |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
| Arab Conquest | 2 |
0 |
2 |
9% |
9% |
|
| Norman | 2 |
0 |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
| Hyksos | 1 |
1 |
0 |
100% |
100% |
|
| Koryo Dynasty Korean | 1 |
1 |
0 |
100% |
100% |
|
| Hittite | 1 |
1 |
0 |
94% |
94% |
|
| Kappadokian | 1 |
1 |
0 |
79% |
79% |
|
| Pyrrhic | 1 |
1 |
0 |
76% |
76% |
|
| Thracian | 1 |
1 |
0 |
65% |
65% |
|
| Ghurid | 1 |
1 |
0 |
43% |
43% |
|
| Hsia Chinese | 1 |
1 |
0 |
39% |
39% |
|
| Hussite | 1 |
1 |
0 |
32% |
32% |
|
| Central Asian Turkish | 1 |
1 |
0 |
29% |
29% |
|
| Pre-Islamic Arab | 1 |
1 |
0 |
29% |
29% |
|
| Canaanite | 1 |
1 |
0 |
27% |
27% |
|
| Pergamene | 1 |
1 |
0 |
19% |
19% |
|
| Ugaritic | 1 |
1 |
0 |
18% |
18% |
|
| Medieval Irish | 1 |
1 |
0 |
16% |
16% |
|
| Syrian | 1 |
1 |
0 |
14% |
14% |
|
| Mithridatic | 1 |
1 |
0 |
14% |
14% |
|
| Galation | 1 |
1 |
0 |
13% |
13% |
|
| Kushite Egyptian | 1 |
1 |
0 |
7% |
7% |
|
| Lybian Egyptian | 1 |
1 |
0 |
7% |
7% |
|
| Abyssinian | 1 |
1 |
0 |
7% |
7% |
|
| Order of St John | 1 |
1 |
0 |
4% |
4% |
|
| Medes | 1 |
1 |
0 |
4% |
4% |
|
| Sea Peoples | 1 |
1 |
0 |
4% |
4% |
|
| Moldavian | 1 |
0 |
1 |
100% |
100% |
|
| Nabatean | 1 |
0 |
1 |
96% |
96% |
|
| Beja | 1 |
0 |
1 |
95% |
95% |
|
| Malay | 1 |
0 |
1 |
94% |
94% |
|
| Tullian Roman | 1 |
0 |
1 |
91% |
91% |
|
| Konstantinian Byzantine | 1 |
0 |
1 |
90% |
90% |
|
| Maccabean Jewish | 1 |
0 |
1 |
76% |
76% |
|
| Asian City States | 1 |
0 |
1 |
75% |
75% |
|
| Sicillian Norman | 1 |
0 |
1 |
71% |
71% |
|
| Scots Common | 1 |
0 |
1 |
69% |
69% |
|
| Early Vietnamese | 1 |
0 |
1 |
61% |
61% |
|
| Achaemenid Persian | 1 |
0 |
1 |
38% |
38% |
|
| Qara-Khitan | 1 |
0 |
1 |
38% |
38% |
|
| White Sheep Turk | 1 |
0 |
1 |
37% |
37% |
|
| Khazar | 1 |
0 |
1 |
36% |
36% |
|
| Golden Horde | 1 |
0 |
1 |
32% |
32% |
|
| Anglo Norman | 1 |
0 |
1 |
32% |
32% |
|
| Ayyubid Egyptian | 1 |
0 |
1 |
31% |
31% |
|
| Horn of Africa | 1 |
0 |
1 |
31% |
31% |
|
| Sung Chinese | 1 |
0 |
1 |
29% |
29% |
|
| Nan Chao | 1 |
0 |
1 |
19% |
19% |
|
| Scots Isles & Highlands | 1 |
0 |
1 |
19% |
19% |
|
| West Frankish | 1 |
0 |
1 |
17% |
17% |
|
| Early Crusader | 1 |
0 |
1 |
12% |
12% |
|
| Early Muslim North African | 1 |
0 |
1 |
12% |
12% |
|
| Fatimid Egyptian | 1 |
0 |
1 |
12% |
12% |
|
| Caananite | 1 |
0 |
1 |
10% |
10% |
|
| Sha-t'o Turkish | 1 |
0 |
1 |
10% |
10% |
|
| Later Moorish | 1 |
0 |
1 |
8% |
8% |
|
| Umayyad Arab | 1 |
0 |
1 |
3% |
3% |
|
| Aztec | 1 |
0 |
1 |
2% |
2% |
|
| Tulunid Egyptian | 1 |
0 |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
There is a table showing the expected range of the success figure (assuming the results are random).
Some points I noted - you will undoubtedly spot others:
| Last revised: August 25, 1999. | |
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